2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Could Win at the Academy Awards?

Awards season is finally taking shape, and with festival chatter, early guild tea leaves, and studio positioning coming into focus, the 2026 race already has a pulse. We’ve sifted through the noise and built a slate of confident, category-by-category picks—while also calling out the key alternates that could surge as critics’ awards and guild nominations hit. Below, you’ll find my projected frontrunner for each race, plus the other films and performances most likely to crash the party. As always, momentum shifts fast—so consider this your up-to-the-minute snapshot of where the race stands right now based on the strongest industry signals.

‘One Battle After Another’ (2025) – Best Picture

Right now, this looks like the film to beat thanks to broad consensus support and “prestige hit” positioning. The deepest competition comes from ‘Hamnet’, ‘Sinners’, and ‘Wicked: For Good’, with ‘Frankenstein’, ‘It Was Just an Accident’, and ‘Jay Kelly’ hovering close behind as plausible nominees. Don’t sleep on big-canvas contenders like ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ or festival darlings such as ‘Bugonia’ and ‘Train Dreams’ that can overperform with critics’ groups. If several craft branches align, ‘F1’ could also make noise in the final stretch.

Paul Thomas Anderson – Best Director

Anderson’s campaign is centered on a long-overdue narrative: a widely respected auteur with multiple past nominations finally positioned for the win on the strength of precision craft and consistent guild respect. Expect his team to lean into DGA, BAFTA, and critics’ prizes to solidify momentum, while emphasizing his authorship across writing and staging. Primary competition comes from the directors of ‘Hamnet’, ‘Sinners’, and ‘Frankenstein’, with potential late surges from the filmmakers behind ‘Wicked: For Good’, ‘F1’, ‘It Was Just an Accident’, and ‘Bugonia’. If he converts key precursors and keeps broad branch support intact, this becomes his race to close.

Wagner Moura – Best Actor

Moura’s push frames him as a commanding, first-time Best Actor contender—an international star turning a high-intensity lead into a full-season narrative with strong visibility and room for critics’ group traction. The campaign’s path runs through SAG and BAFTA shortlists, showcasing range, physical commitment, and control under pressure. He’ll face heavy pressure from the leads of ‘Marty Supreme’ and ‘One Battle After Another’, with additional threats from standout performances in ‘Sinners’ and other prestige dramas rising on the circuit. If Moura lands the right televised precursor and maintains top-of-ballot passion, he’s the one to beat.

Jessie Buckley – Best Actress

Buckley’s case highlights an actor’s-actor profile: previously recognized by the Academy, now delivering a showpiece that blends technical control with star charisma and broad audience reach. The strategy is to convert critics’ wins into SAG and BAFTA momentum while underlining the role’s vocal and dramatic demands in screenings and Q&As. Pressure will come from the leads of ‘Hamnet’ and ‘One Battle After Another’, plus attention-grabbing dramatic turns in ‘Sinners’ and ‘It Was Just an Accident’. If Buckley sustains visibility across guilds and crafts, she can consolidate the field late.

Stellan Skarsgård – Best Supporting Actor

Skarsgård’s supporting bid leans on veteran authority—an acclaimed character actor delivering concentrated impact and scene-by-scene control that reads clearly with voters across branches. The campaign will emphasize peer respect, critical pull quotes, and the role’s narrative hinge points to build precursor consistency. Closest challengers include standout supporting players from ‘Marty Supreme’ and ‘Sinners’, with contenders connected to ‘Jay Kelly’, ‘It Was Just an Accident’, and ‘The Secret Agent’ also in striking distance. If Skarsgård strings together critics’ citations and lands SAG, he becomes the default consensus pick.

Ariana Grande – Best Supporting Actress

Grande’s run positions a high-visibility crossover performer delivering a shaped, character-forward turn that balances showmanship with emotional beats—exactly the combination that often pops in this category. The route to the podium runs through a strong soundtrack footprint, strategic performances/appearances, and a push for SAG ensemble recognition to showcase cast chemistry. Opposition will come from supporting standouts in ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Sinners’, while eye-catching roles in ‘Bugonia’, ‘One Battle After Another’, and ‘Frankenstein’ remain firmly in the mix. If Grande translates pop-culture heat into steady precursor tallies, she can outlast a crowded field.

‘Sinners’ (2025) – Best Original Screenplay

Originals often win when they feel urgent and sharply designed, and ‘Sinners’ checks both boxes with voters and pundits. Strong challengers include ‘It Was Just an Accident’ and ‘Marty Supreme’, with ‘One Battle After Another’ hovering as a dual picture-screenplay threat. Depending on category placement, ‘Jay Kelly’ could also push into a final five. A few critics’ groups favoring bold writing could lock this one early.

‘Hamnet’ (2025) – Best Adapted Screenplay

As a high-profile literary adaptation, ‘Hamnet’ is positioned to appeal to both writers and the broader Academy. The slate of challengers likely features ‘Frankenstein’ and ‘Bugonia’, with ‘Train Dreams’ making a case if it connects with coastal critics. A franchise-scale contender such as ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ could surprise if craft strength pairs with an awards-caliber script. Placement shuffles may decide the last couple of slots.

‘Frankenstein’ (2025) – Best Cinematography

This title keeps appearing near the top of lensing conversations thanks to its visual ambition and scale. Key rivals include ‘Sinners’ and ‘Hamnet’, while ‘Train Dreams’ and ‘F1’ bring distinct photographic signatures that critics’ groups often spotlight. ‘One Battle After Another’ could ride overall strength into a nomination as well. If the branch leans epic this year, this is the film that benefits most.

‘F1’ (2025) – Best Film Editing

High-velocity storytelling usually thrives with editors, and ‘F1’ offers the rhythmic precision and momentum this branch loves. The closest competition comes from tightly cut prestige dramas like ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’. Large-scale musicals and tentpoles—’Wicked: For Good’ and ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’—also have a path if they nab big below-the-line hauls. A surprise from ‘It Was Just an Accident’ is possible if its structure becomes a talking point.

‘Wicked: For Good’ (2025) – Best Original Song

Between brand visibility and multiple eligible tracks, this musical is primed to dominate the song conversation. Other likely players include contributions from ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ and prestige dramas that mount targeted music campaigns. If another film lands a breakout radio-friendly ballad, it could consolidate voters across branches. Historically prolific songwriters circling the race may also factor into the final calculus.

‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ (2025) – Best Visual Effects

State-of-the-art world-building makes this the early VFX favorite, with a clear track to both shortlist and win. The muscular craft packages on ‘F1’ and ‘Wicked: For Good’ could also pull serious support if they hit the box-office-plus-awards sweet spot. Additional contenders include the creature and atmospheric work cited around ‘Frankenstein’ and the stylized environments in ‘Bugonia’. Voters often split nominations between realism, spectacle, and fantasy—this year’s slate can do all three.

‘Frankenstein’ (2025) – Best Production Design

This film’s tactile sets and period-gothic scale position it strongly with designers. Serious threats include the lavish musical world of ‘Wicked: For Good’ and the stylized spaces of ‘Bugonia’. Prestige contenders like ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’ could also ride overall strength into design nods. If ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ overperforms, expect the branch to make room for an effects-heavy build as well.

‘Bugonia’ (2025) – Best Costume Design

The film’s heightened tone and character-driven looks give it a showcase wardrobe that reads clearly on screener. The biggest competition likely comes from the couture spectacle of ‘Wicked: For Good’ and the period textures of ‘Frankenstein’. Designs in ‘Hamnet’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ also have a lane if voters rally to their overall packages. Craft branches often reward bolder palettes—this checks that box without alienating traditionalists.

‘F1’ (2025) – Best Sound

Engineered immersion is the calling card here: racing dynamics, crowd energy, and layered environments make it catnip for the sound branch. Rivals include the musical mix of ‘Wicked: For Good’ and the epic soundscapes of ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’. Prestige dramas—’One Battle After Another’ and ‘Sinners’—remain competitive if their sonic storytelling becomes a talking point in guild screenings. Expect shortlist performance to foreshadow the final five closely.

‘Sentimental Value’ (2025) – Best International Feature

Early handicapping places this among the top non-English titles, with momentum building as countries finalize submissions. Other major players include ‘The Secret Agent’, ‘No Other Choice’, and ‘The Voice of Hind’, each drawing steady buzz. As always, this category can hinge on the committee phase—visibility and screening turnout matter. Festival awards and shortlist chatter will be the tell.

‘Cover-Up’ (2025) – Best Documentary Feature

Industry watchers currently circle this as the doc to beat, with timely subject matter and strong craft support. The field is deep, though, with ‘2000 Meters to Andriivka’, ‘The Perfect Neighbor’, and ‘The Librarians’ all mounting credible campaigns. Regional critics and guild lists often shuffle this lineup in December and January. Keep an eye on late-breaking exposés that can galvanize voters quickly.

Think I nailed it—or did I miss your dark horse? Drop your picks and hot takes in the comments!