‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ Encounters Troubling Signs Ahead of Release with Dramatically Lower Opening Projections

We’re just a few days away from the release of Joker: Folie à Deux, the sequel to the 2019 film Joker. Set two years after the original, Joaquin Phoenix reprises his role as the Joker, while Lady Gaga joins the cast as Harley Quinn.

The film officially premiered on September 4 at the Venice Film Festival, a month before its theatrical release. The review embargo was lifted soon after, and the initial reactions to the movie have been largely negative.

The film currently holds a 59% approval rating from critics, and while the audience score is not yet available, initial reactions to its musical elements do not bode well.

The first Joker film received similar mixed reviews upon release but ultimately became a massive success for the studio. Joker grossed $335.5 million in the U.S. and Canada, and $743.5 million internationally, bringing its worldwide total to $1.079 billion.

It ranks as the sixth-highest-grossing film of 2019 and the second-highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, being the first R-rated film to exceed the billion-dollar mark until Deadpool and Wolverine this year. With its low budget and impressive box office performance, Joker remains the most profitable comic book film ever.

In contrast, Joker: Folie à Deux appears to be in a tougher position. The sequel is projected to earn $140 million domestically, but the estimated opening has been revised down to $55 million to $60 million across 4,000 U.S. theaters, including IMAX and PLF screens. This is a drop from the initial forecast of over $70 million based on three-week tracking, according to Deadline.

If these projections hold, the sequel is expected to earn about $100 million less than the first installment, which would be less concerning if it didn’t have a budget that is four times larger than the original. Deadline reports that the production cost for Joker: Folie à Deux is over $190 million.

While this isn’t necessarily poor box office performance, the film’s status as a musical, low presale numbers, and overall negative reactions suggest it’s unlikely to replicate the success of its predecessor.

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