Latest Projections Show ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Could Dominate Box Office With Massive Opening
Avatar: Fire and Ash is on track for a massive opening weekend, with estimates suggesting it could earn over $400 million globally.
North America alone is expected to bring in more than $100 million, while China may add between $85 million and $100 million. The film is also set to achieve the biggest debut of the year in Germany and become the highest-grossing imported movie of 2025 in India.
AVATAR: FIRE ANS ASH is now tracking to earn $400M+ on its opening weekend at the global box office next weekend.
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOff) December 12, 2025
This includes $100M+ from North America and $85M-$100M from China. In Germany, it’ll score the biggest debut of the year. In India, the biggest imported film of 2025 pic.twitter.com/1Lgj4wzu2t
Despite the strong projections, director James Cameron has expressed some uncertainty about the film’s box office performance. In a recent appearance on The Town with Matthew Belloni podcast, he shared his worries about releasing the movie during a difficult time for theaters.
Cameron pointed out that audience attendance is currently about three-quarters of pre-pandemic levels and that streaming has changed the way people watch films.
Cameron also joked about “sequel fatigue,” saying audiences can be quick to dismiss follow-up films unless they feel a strong connection to the story. “People tend to dismiss sequels unless it’s the third Lord of the Rings film… but that may not be how the public sees it,” he said.
The director hinted at the high cost of the movie without giving exact numbers. “It is one metric f*** ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f**** tons of money to make a profit,” Cameron said. He added that while he believes the film will make money, the bigger question is whether it will earn enough to justify continuing with parts four and five.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is the third film in the franchise and was shot alongside The Way of Water in New Zealand. Production took several years to complete, in part because of new underwater performance-capture technology developed specifically for the series. The movie has been delayed multiple times and is now scheduled to premiere in December.
This world is much deeper than you imagine. Watch the brand-new trailer for Avatar: Fire and Ash and experience it in theatres December 19th.
— Avatar (@officialavatar) September 25, 2025
Also, don’t miss Avatar: The Way of Water back on the big screen in 3D for one week only, starting October 3rd. pic.twitter.com/nB5nOcrQMx
The future of the franchise depends heavily on this installment’s success. Sequels four and five are tentatively planned for 2029 and 2031, but Cameron made it clear that box office results will play a major role in deciding whether the series continues.
Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!