‘Avengers: Doomsday’ vs. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’: Prediction Markets Pick a Favorite for the Year’s Biggest Opening
It has been a historic year for superhero movies at the box office, and the biggest battle may still be ahead. Over the summer, one web-slinging blockbuster rewrote the record books, and now Marvel’s next team-up is gunning for the same crown. The race for the biggest opening of 2026 has turned into a genuine Marvel-versus-Marvel showdown.
The bar is incredibly high. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day‘, directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland, opened on July 31 to a record-shattering $360 million domestically. That figure toppled ‘Avengers: Endgame‘ and its long-standing $357.1 million benchmark, giving the Sony and Marvel release the biggest North American debut of all time.
Despite that monster debut, traders on prediction market Polymarket currently believe ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ will come out on top. According to a market tracking which film will have 2026’s biggest opening, as shared by ScreenTime, ‘Doomsday’ sits at 54% while ‘Brand New Day’ trails at 43%.
The chart behind those numbers tells an interesting story. ‘Doomsday’ held a comfortable lead through most of the summer, before ‘Brand New Day’ surged sharply around its late July release. The 2 films have since swapped places, with ‘Doomsday’ reclaiming a slim advantage heading into October.
It’s worth remembering that these figures reflect the bets of market participants rather than official tracking or studio projections. Not everyone is a fan of the concept, either, with at least one skeptic in the replies dismissing the platform entirely.
‘Avengers: Doomsday’ leads ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ in the race for 2026’s biggest opening weekend, according to traders on Polymarket.com https://t.co/dCxnpWGSlK
— ScreenTime (@screentime) October 1, 2026
‘Brand New Day’ didn’t just break the opening weekend record. It also set marks for the biggest Thursday previews at $72 million and the biggest opening day in history, with Variety reporting $169.8 million on Friday. Globally, it launched with $932 million, the second-best worldwide opening behind ‘Endgame’ and its $1.22 billion.
A Brand New Day starts now.
— Marvel Entertainment (@Marvel) March 18, 2026
Watch the official trailer for Spider-Man: Brand New Day – exclusively in theatres July 31. pic.twitter.com/O4ryqpTCZX
The film also proved to have serious staying power. It topped the domestic box office for 6 consecutive weekends, the first film to do so since ‘Avengers: Endgame’ was still a recent memory for comparison, and has since grossed nearly $2.5 billion worldwide.
There are good reasons for optimism around ‘Doomsday’. The film arrives in theaters on December 18 with an enormous ensemble, bringing together the Fox-era X-Men, the Fantastic Four, the Thunderbolts, and heroes like Thor and Captain America. Robert Downey Jr. headlines as Doctor Doom, adding another layer of nostalgia to the event.
The hype machine is also running at full speed. ‘Avengers: Endgame Encore’ is currently in theaters with bonus scenes that set up ‘Doomsday’, and the re-release has been a big success. Kevin Feige recently teased that Marvel still has many stories left to tell, signaling just how central this film is to the studio’s future.
Still, ‘Doomsday’ faces a different landscape than a summer tentpole. Holiday releases often build over several weeks rather than front-loading their grosses into a single weekend. That could make topping a $360 million debut harder than the hype suggests.
New trailer for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’
— Culture Crave 🍿 (@CultureCrave) August 15, 2026
In theaters December 18 pic.twitter.com/1wsiTk1Nnv
With less than 3 months to go, the market’s narrow split shows just how close this race could be. Either way, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the biggest years for Marvel at the box office in a long time.
Which movie do you think will have the biggest opening of 2026?
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