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‘You Can See Everything’ Emerges as the Frontrunner for Best Documentary at the Oscars

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Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s ‘You Can See Everything’ has become one of the year’s most talked-about films. The A24 documentary follows the Theranos founder through the 34 days before she reported to prison and keeps rolling afterward. The movie was surprise-revealed during the Telluride Film Festival in September.

It’s also been a box office hit. It earned the biggest opening weekend for a documentary in two decades, grossing $15 million from a limited opening of 855 theaters and selling out more than 2,000 screenings. That was a substantial gross for a documentary that cost $7 million to make.

Now the betting markets are getting on board. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives ‘You Can See Everything’ a 69% chance of winning Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, well ahead of ‘NAZA’ at 22% and ‘Once Upon a Time in Harlem’ at 6%. The chart shared by Kalshi shows the film overtaking its rivals and holding the lead in recent weeks.

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The film’s latest awards success may be driving the jump. ‘You Can See Everything’ just dominated the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, sweeping all five prizes it was nominated for.

The reviews have been strong too. It has an unrivaled mix of critical acclaim and box-office power, with a sterling 97 Metacritic score. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100% and a haul of $80 million at the box office (and climbing), it has become a serious contender across several categories.

Other predictors still see a close race. Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s Naza is the film to beat at the Oscars according to Gold Derby’s odds, and it won Best Political Documentary at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards. The film comes from Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, two of the Oscar-winning directors of No Other Land.

‘NAZA’ has collected awards of its own. HSDFF’s Critics Prize went to the investigative documentary, which is based on interviews with 24 anonymous members of Israeli military intelligence and soldiers.

‘Once Upon a Time in Harlem’ has also been a festival favorite. In 1972, the pioneering filmmaker William Greaves gathered luminaries of the 1920s Harlem Renaissance to document their memories. When Greaves died in 2014, the film was left unfinished. Now his son David, who was a cameraman on the original shoot, brings the project to completion. It earned the Hot Springs Documentary Film Festival’s award for Best Documentary Film.

The A24 film is aiming for more than the documentary prize. The film is being submitted for Best Picture, director, cinematography, and costume design, among other categories. A documentary has never been nominated for Best Picture across 98 ceremonies.

The campaign also includes an unusual acting push. Perhaps most surprising is a submission for Best Supporting Actress for Amanda Seyfried, who appears in the movie playing herself and a version of Holmes. Gold Derby has the film at No. 8 on its Best Picture leaderboard, with an 85% chance of getting a nomination.

Not everyone is convinced its momentum will translate to Oscar gold. Some documentary-world insiders think everyone is getting way ahead of themselves. Several pundits have even speculated about a scenario in which ‘You Can See Everything’ is a shocking omission from the documentary shortlist announced in December. For now, Kalshi’s bettors are firmly behind Fielder and Oppenheim. Whether the Academy agrees will become clearer once the shortlist and nominations arrive.

Which documentary do you think deserves to win Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars?

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