‘Love of Your Life’ Star Margaret Qualley Reclaims Her Spot as the Bond Girl Favorite as Casting Heats Up

The race to cast the next James Bond is in its final stretch, and the hunt for the actress who’ll star opposite him is getting just as much attention. ‘Bond 26’, Denis Villeneuve’s take on the spy franchise, still hasn’t officially announced a single cast member. That hasn’t stopped prediction markets from picking a favorite for the film’s lead female role: Margaret Qualley.

The 007 search has dominated headlines this month. Robert Pattinson and Nicholas Hoult were the latest names reported to have screen-tested for the iconic role, while Jack Lowden, Josh O’Connor and Callum Turner have also reportedly tested. Deadline said a decision could come by the end of November, possibly before Thanksgiving.

Now, prediction market Kalshi has Qualley firmly back on top of the Bond girl race. According to its latest numbers, the ‘Substance’ star has a 48% chance of being cast as the next Bond girl. Anya Taylor-Joy trails at 26%, with Sydney Sweeney at 15%.

Qualley’s lead has grown quickly. About 12 days ago, Kalshi gave her a 39% chance, ahead of Anya Taylor-Joy at 26% and Sydney Sweeney at 14%. The latest jump suggests traders are becoming more confident in her chances.

It wasn’t always this way. In late August, Kalshi traders had Taylor-Joy at 65%, far ahead of Qualley at 29% and Sweeney at 19%. Until recently, Sweeney had been in the top spot on the betting odds, but at the end of October, Qualley knocked her down to No. 2.

Margaret Qualley is once again the favorite to be cast as the next Bond girl https://t.co/bSsjm9NTHS

— Kalshi Film (@Kalshi_Film) November 12, 2026

Earlier this year, the picture looked very different. One set of predictions had Sydney Sweeney leading at 25%, with Margaret Qualley at 17%, Anya Taylor-Joy at 14%, and Florence Pugh and Zendaya at 12% each.

Qualley’s link to the franchise goes back to a memorable night at the Oscars. She kicked off a special tribute to the songs of the spy franchise at the 2025 Academy Awards, twirling in a vivid red dress with a succession of tuxedo-clad dancers. Many viewers took her performance as a not-so-subtle tease about her involvement in ‘Bond 26’, though she hasn’t said anything official.

Some see her as a natural fit for Villeneuve’s style. One Covers.com analysis argued that the director is well known for favoring prestige casting, and that Qualley stands out as a prestige name on the list.

Denis Villeneuve says he’s having a "great time" screening actors for the upcoming James Bond movie. 📍 LACMA Art+Film Gala https://t.co/FgNYHowBb6

— Variety (@Variety) November 8, 2026

Sweeney hasn’t been ruled out by fans or franchise veterans. Former Bond star Trina Parks recently endorsed Sweeney as the right actor for the role. When asked about joining the franchise, Sweeney said it would depend on the script, adding that she thought she’d have more fun as James Bond than as a Bond girl.

Other names have floated around too. Some casting rumors have focused on Dakota Johnson, while some fans have suggested Florence Pugh as a new version of Miss Moneypenny.

It’s worth remembering what these markets actually measure. Amazon MGM hasn’t announced any casting for the film, and prediction markets reflect trader sentiment rather than inside information. Casting on ‘Bond 26’ is expected to get fully underway once an actor has been chosen to play the next 007.

The film itself is still taking shape. Villeneuve is directing from a script written by ‘Peaky Blinders’ creator Steven Knight, and it will be the first Bond film since Amazon took over the franchise. ‘Bond 26’ remains in development, with no actor, title, release date, or filming start officially confirmed. Once the new 007 is revealed, the spotlight will shift quickly to who joins him. If the markets are right, Qualley could be the next big name to land in the franchise.

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