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‘Ebenezer’ Box Office Tracking Rises Ahead of Johnny Depp’s Big Comeback

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Paramount Pictures

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Johnny Depp’s return to a major studio film is almost here. ‘Ebenezer’, a new adaptation of Charles Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol” in which he plays the miserly Ebenezer Scrooge, marks his first major studio role in nearly eight years. Directed by Ti West, known for his “X” horror trilogy, the film is scheduled to open on November 13.

Paramount has put Depp at the center of its marketing. The studio floated a trial balloon at Comic-Con, sending Depp, in character, to plug the November 13 release by shouting humbug at passers-by in San Diego. The first trailer is all about the return of the “master of misfits,” complete with Depp saying directly to the camera, “It’s good to be back.”

Now early sales are giving tracking a lift. According to a Box Office Theory tracker known as TheFlatLannister, whose update was shared on Reddit, ‘Ebenezer’ is now projected to open between $20 million and $23 million after strong weekend presales, with around $1.5 million expected from previews. The same tracker put its opening-weekend pace about 30% behind ‘Masters of the Universe’ and 56% behind ‘Disclosure Day’, but 35% ahead of ‘End of Oak Street’.

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Other projections point to a similar range. Box Office Theory’s domestic opening weekend forecast range is $20 to $27 million, while traditional studio tracking sits at $20 million. Industry projections also expect a similar amount from 63 international markets. That’s a far cry from Depp’s past box office highs. TheWrap noted that the projected opening highlights how far expectations have fallen for the star.

The film’s costs could make that number look more respectable. With Depp taking a smaller salary compared to his prime, “Ebenezer” has a reported net budget of $38 million, below the $50-60 million budgets of some of his 2010s flops like “Mortdecai” and “Black Mass.” That is counterbalanced by a reported $50 million marketing budget.

Depp’s paycheck reflects the changed landscape too. The actor reportedly earned $5 million for the project, though the deal reportedly includes performance-based bonuses. On that budget level, “Ebenezer” could be a modest success for Paramount.

Paramount is counting on staying power. The hope is that word-of-mouth, particularly around Depp’s performance, will allow “Ebenezer” to endure in theaters into December even as it faces a relatively soft box office launch. As a “Christmas Carol” adaptation, the film could last as a gothic-tinged holiday offering if nostalgia builds around Depp.

Early buzz has been encouraging. First reactions praised Depp’s performance, with one critic describing the film as a darker version of the Dickens fable that brings more sincerity than many earlier adaptations, and calling Depp’s Scrooge a layered performance.

Depp isn’t carrying the film alone. The cast includes Tramell Tillman as the Ghost of Christmas Present and Ian McKellen as Jacob Marley. Rupert Grint and Daisy Ridley also co-star.

West is leaning into the story’s darker side. He is treating the ghostly visits less like moral lessons and more like genuine horror. Paramount’s tagline sums up the approach: “The name you know. The story you don’t.”

‘Ebenezer’ won’t have the weekend to itself. David Leitch’s heist thriller ‘How to Rob a Bank’ also opens the same frame. Even so, forecasters see Depp’s Scrooge as the frontrunner, with one predicting it will take the top spot at the box office. If presales keep improving, ‘Ebenezer’ could beat its early tracking and give Depp the comeback Paramount is hoping for.

Do you think 'Ebenezer' will mark a successful box office comeback for Johnny Depp?

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