‘Melania’ Surges Toward Box Office Surprise With a New Projected Opening in North America
Melania Trump’s new documentary is turning heads at the box office, and not for the reasons many expected. After being written off as a failure before release, the film is now performing far better than early forecasts suggested.
According to early box office reports from industry tracking sources and studio estimates, Melania is heading toward an opening of around $8.1 million in North America. That number puts the film well above earlier projections and marks a surprise reversal after days of gloomy predictions and reports of low advance ticket sales.
The documentary had a high-profile debut in Washington, D.C., with President Donald Trump in attendance alongside a crowd of supporters. The film follows Melania Trump in the weeks leading up to her husband’s second presidential inauguration and is directed by Brett Ratner. This project also marks Ratner’s return to filmmaking after years away from Hollywood.
Amazon MGM Studios backed the film with a massive investment. The company paid $40 million for the documentary’s global rights, making it the most expensive documentary deal ever. On top of that, Amazon reportedly spent another $35 million on marketing worldwide, according to studio insiders. Nearly $15 million of that went toward promoting the film in the U.S. alone.
MELANIA, the film, exclusively in theaters worldwide on January 30th, 2026. pic.twitter.com/n2kloQ4JwW
— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) December 17, 2025
Earlier in the week, Melania was expected to open closer to $3 million or even less. Some theater owners even warned the film could struggle to reach $2 million after slow midweek ticket sales and social media posts showing empty theaters. By Friday afternoon, however, updated studio numbers showed a very different picture, with estimates jumping to between $8 million and $9 million.
If those numbers hold, Melania is set to land in third place at the box office, beating out Jason Statham’s new action film Shelter. It will trail only Send Help and Iron Lung, two new releases currently battling for the top spot.
Industry watchers say the film’s sudden boost appears to be driven by strong turnout in conservative-leaning areas and heavy promotion from Donald Trump himself. Critics have not helped the film. Reviews have been harsh, and the movie holds very low scores on review sites. Still, Amazon appears focused on the bigger picture. Sources say the studio plans to move the documentary to Prime Video within weeks, likely around the Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day holiday window.
The competition this weekend is fierce. Sam Raimi’s Send Help, starring Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien, is leading the pack with strong reviews and an opening near $18 million. Close behind is Iron Lung, a horror film directed by YouTube star Mark Fischbach, which is on track for just over $17 million and is already being called a major win for self-distributed films.
Despite all the noise around its cost and controversy, Melania has clearly defied early expectations. Whether it can sustain interest beyond opening weekend remains to be seen, especially given its critical reception and high price tag.
This opening shows that box office results are becoming harder to predict. Strong opinions, loyal audiences, and political attention can still move people into theaters, even when reviews are bad. What do you think about Melania’s surprise start and the changing box office landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below.