‘Moana’ Live-Action Remake Box Office Outlook Just Got Even Grimmer For Disney
Disney has spent the better part of the last decade turning its animated classics into billion dollar live action machines, and few franchises seemed as safe a bet as ‘Moana.’ The original 2016 film became a cultural phenomenon and a Disney+ staple, while ‘Moana 2’ proved the brand still had massive pull when it exploded into one of the biggest hits of 2024.
That success is exactly why the upcoming live action version, starring Dwayne Johnson as Maui and newcomer Catherine Laga’aia in the title role, carried such heavy expectations. The film is directed by Thomas Kail and adapted by Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller, with its US release set for July 10, 2026. Unlike most Disney remakes revisiting decades old films, ‘Moana’ is only ten years removed from its original release, leaving industry watchers questioning whether the built in nostalgia factor is even there this time.
Now the numbers are backing up those concerns. Box office tracking account Global Box Office reported that the live action ‘Moana’ remake is seeing pre sales bomb harder than expected, with domestic opening weekend forecasts sliding to a range of forty five million to sixty million dollars. That marks a steep drop from where analysts had the film positioned just weeks earlier, and with a production budget reportedly sitting around two hundred million dollars before marketing, the trajectory could make it one of Disney’s more expensive misfires of the year.
Other trackers have painted a similarly rough picture even as their exact numbers vary. Box Office Theory previously projected an opening between seventy five million and ninety six million dollars, but its latest forecast has since dropped to a range of fifty seven million to seventy two million, with a pinpoint estimate of about sixty two million. Every major forecast circulating right now points to an opening below Disney’s divisive 2023 ‘The Little Mermaid’ remake, a film widely viewed as one of the studio’s bigger disappointments in this genre.
Timing certainly is not doing ‘Moana’ any favors. The remake arrives while Toy Story 5 is still holding strong in its third weekend and Minions & Monsters is fresh off its own release, with Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey following just one week later to sweep the board. That crowded family friendly stretch leaves little room for a soft opening to build the kind of word of mouth Disney needs to recoup its investment.
Adding to the pressure is the physical transformation Johnson underwent to bring Maui back to life, a process he has said took a real toll. Discussing the forty pound bodysuit and wig required for the role, Johnson told Entertainment Weekly that “it was grueling because of the suit and how hot it was,” adding that performing in the getup forced him to adjust “how to actually work my emotions through the 40 pounds of prosthetics and hair and body.”
Whether that dedication translates into ticket sales remains to be seen, but the gap between Disney’s ambitions and the current tracking numbers is hard to ignore. With ‘Toy Story 5’ still eating into family audiences and ‘The Odyssey’ looming right behind it, does Dwayne Johnson’s demigod have enough magic left to keep ‘Moana’ from sinking at the box office this weekend?
