Prediction Market Bettors Are Nearly Certain Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man Swings Into ‘Avengers: Doomsday’

Few Marvel rumors have proven as persistent as the idea of Tobey Maguire returning as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’. The speculation first took off in November 2025, when insider Daniel Richtman claimed Maguire would reprise his role in the upcoming crossover, though neither the actor nor Marvel Studios has confirmed it.

Since then, the rumor mill has only grown louder. Alleged leaks surfaced appearing to show a bloodied Maguire in a version of his classic suit in front of a blue screen, and in June 2026 scooper MyTimeToShine claimed his Spider-Man would have more screen time in the film than first expected.

Now, fans who want a numbers-based read on the rumor have one. On Kalshi, a prediction market where users trade on the outcome of real-world events, the odds of Maguire appearing as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ have climbed to 92%.

The market is listed under ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ cast predictions and is set to close on December 17 at 9:00 p.m., the night before the film opens in theaters. Its chart shows the odds swinging up and down over time before steadily rising toward the top of the range.

Trading activity on the question has been substantial, with more than $2 million in volume. That level of interest shows just how invested fans are in the possibility of seeing the original Spider-Man back on the big screen.

There’s a 92% chance Tobey Maguire will return as Spider-Man in ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’. https://t.co/f1B8ygDTld

— MCU Film News (@MCUFilmNews) October 10, 2026

Marvel Studios has done little to cool the speculation. During its Hall H presentation at San Diego Comic-Con, the studio’s sizzle reel included archival footage of Maguire’s Spider-Man from ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’, which many fans took as a deliberate tease.

Other reports claim Maguire’s Peter Parker will feature in the film’s opening sequence, possibly facing off against the Fox-era X-Men. Some rumors even suggest that his Earth could be threatened by an Incursion, raising fears that his version of the hero might not survive.

New trailer for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ In theaters December 18 https://t.co/1wsiTk1Nnv

— Culture Crave 🍿 (@CultureCrave) August 15, 2026

Earlier this year, reports also indicated that ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ was undergoing reshoots, with speculation that Maguire’s role could be expanded during that time. Another insider claim suggested his Spider-Man could receive an updated suit for the upcoming Avengers films.

The rumors have raised questions about Tom Holland’s place in the crossover. Some reports claim Holland will sit out ‘Doomsday’, with Maguire taking the Spider-Man spotlight instead.

Holland recently headlined ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’, which became a record-breaking hit this summer. Both actors are reportedly expected to return in bigger roles for ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’, which arrives on December 17, 2027.

If the rumors prove true, ‘Doomsday’ would mark Maguire’s fifth appearance as Peter Parker. He previously starred in Sam Raimi’s trilogy before reuniting with Holland and Andrew Garfield in ‘No Way Home’.

Directed by Joe and Anthony Russo, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ follows heroes from 3 distinct universes as they collide and face an existential threat. The Avengers, Fantastic Four, X-Men, and Wakandans all team up to take on Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom.

The film opens in theaters on December 18. Until then, Marvel is keeping its secrets close, and fans will have to wait to see whether the betting market got it right. Prediction markets aren’t official confirmation, but a 92% figure shows how strongly fans have bought into the idea.

Between leaks, insider reports, and Marvel’s own teasing, Maguire’s return has become one of the film’s most talked-about possibilities. Whether he appears in a brief cameo or a major role, his presence would likely be one of the biggest moments of the holiday movie season. For now, all eyes remain on December.

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