Prediction Market Odds Favor Tobey Maguire Over Tom Holland for an ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Appearance

Tobey Maguire last swung into action as Spider-Man in 2021’s ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’, where he reunited with Tom Holland and Andrew Garfield. Since then, rumors of his return have only grown louder as Marvel prepares for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’.

Insider Daniel Richtman first claimed in November 2025 that Maguire would reprise the role in the upcoming crossover. In June 2026, scooper MyTimeToShine added that his Spider-Man would have more screen time than originally expected, though neither Maguire nor Marvel Studios has confirmed anything.

Now, prediction market traders are weighing in on which web-slinger will show up. On Polymarket, users currently give Maguire roughly a 90% chance of appearing as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’.

Holland, the MCU’s current Spider-Man, sits at just 49%. The market’s chart shows Maguire’s odds steadily climbing over recent months, while Holland’s have hovered around the middle of the range.

The gap is especially striking given Holland’s recent success. His latest solo outing, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’, broke the all-time domestic opening-day record this summer and became the highest-grossing film in U.S. and Canadian box office history.

Tobey Maguire hasn’t been Spider-Man since 2021, but polymarket⁠.com traders still give him a 90% chance of appearing in Avengers: Doomsday The MCU’s current Spider-Man, Tom Holland, is sitting at just 49% https://t.co/4GSw98hgne

— ScreenTime (@screentime) October 12, 2026

Polymarket isn’t the only platform tracking the rumor. On Kalshi, another prediction market, Maguire’s odds of appearing recently reached 92%. Both markets suggest strong confidence that the original Spider-Man is headed back to the big screen. Still, these figures reflect traders’ expectations rather than any official confirmation.

Marvel has done little to discourage the speculation. During its Hall H presentation at San Diego Comic-Con, the studio’s sizzle reel featured archival footage of Maguire’s Spider-Man from ‘No Way Home’.

New trailer for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ In theaters December 18 https://t.co/1wsiTk1Nnv

— Culture Crave 🍿 (@CultureCrave) August 15, 2026

Alleged leaks also appeared to show a bloodied Maguire in a version of his classic suit in front of a blue screen. Other reports claim his Peter Parker features in the film’s opening sequence, possibly alongside the Fox-era X-Men.

Reports earlier this year also indicated that ‘Doomsday’ went through reshoots, with speculation that Maguire’s role could be expanded. Another insider claim suggested he might receive an updated suit for the upcoming Avengers films.

The lower odds for Holland reflect reports that he may not feature in ‘Doomsday’ at all. Some outlets have claimed he will step aside for this film, with Maguire taking the Spider-Man spotlight instead.

That doesn’t mean Holland’s MCU journey is over. Both actors are reportedly expected to return in major roles for ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’, which arrives on December 17, 2027. If the rumors prove true, ‘Doomsday’ would mark Maguire’s fifth appearance as Peter Parker, following Sam Raimi’s trilogy and ‘No Way Home’.

Directed by Joe and Anthony Russo, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ brings together heroes from 3 distinct universes facing an existential threat. The Avengers, Fantastic Four, X-Men, and Wakandans team up against Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom.

The film opens in theaters on December 18. Until then, Marvel continues to keep its biggest surprises under wraps. Prediction markets can be a fun gauge of fan sentiment, but they’re not a guarantee. The real answer will only arrive when audiences finally sit down to watch the film.

For now, the numbers show just how much fans want to see Maguire back in the suit. Whether he appears in a cameo or a major role, his return would be one of the biggest moments of the holiday season.

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