‘The Odyssey’ Holds the Best Picture Lead, but a Netflix Contender Is Closing the Gap

Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey‘ has already rewritten the box office record books, and now the Best Picture race is taking shape around it. Nolan’s adaptation of Homer’s epic poem, starring Matt Damon as the Greek king Odysseus, arrived on July 17 as an R-rated, 173-minute sword-and-sandal epic, a genre Variety noted is rarely made these days. It’s also the first feature shot entirely with IMAX film cameras.

Audiences responded in a big way. The film opened to $123.5 million domestically and dropped just 27% in its second weekend, breaking the record for the smallest second-weekend drop for any movie that opened above $100 million. It has since grossed $1.721 billion worldwide on a $250 million budget, becoming the highest-grossing R-rated film ever, Universal’s biggest release, and Nolan’s highest-grossing film.

That success is now translating into awards buzz. On prediction market Kalshi, ‘The Odyssey’ currently holds a 54% chance of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, making it the clear frontrunner with about $6.8 million traded on the market so far.

The market chart went viral on X, where posts about the film’s Oscar chances became a trending story. The figure puts Nolan’s epic well ahead of the field, but the numbers also reveal a more interesting story underneath.

The biggest mover is ‘The Black Ball’, a Netflix film from Spanish directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. It now sits at 27% on Kalshi, up 12 points, after premiering at Cannes in May, where the pair won the Best Director prize.

JUST IN: Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has a 54% chance of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. pic.twitter.com/bKoUhrc8tP

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) September 23, 2026

That climb has come at ‘The Odyssey’s expense. According to ComicBasics, traders had Nolan’s film at 58% about a month ago and 59% on August 20, when ‘The Black Ball’ was sitting at just 12%. Some reviews of the Spanish film have been split on its scale, according to Stokastic, which suggests the race could still shift as more people see it.

Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’ was once seen as Nolan’s biggest threat. Covers.com noted it was sitting at 13% as a key challenger, though it raised questions about whether the franchise finale has what it takes to win. The film has since slipped to 9% on Kalshi’s Best Picture market after dropping 4 points.

Other titles are also trading as longshots. Covers.com pointed to films like ‘Digger’ and ‘Wild Horse Nine’, both priced below 10 cents at the time of its analysis.

The final trailer for Christopher Nolan's ‘THE ODYSSEY’ has been released.

In theaters on July 17. pic.twitter.com/xn42TcX4aG

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) July 1, 2026

The Best Picture board isn’t the only place where Nolan’s epic leads. Kalshi’s news team reported in July that the film topped the Adapted Screenplay nomination market at 87%, ahead of Olivia Wilde’s ‘The Invite’ and ‘The Black Ball’, and it also led the market for a nomination in Best Achievement in Casting. Nolan himself is currently favored in the Best Director race at 71%, well ahead of Villeneuve at 22%.

Critics have been firmly on board too. The film holds a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes, which Stokastic described as the best of Nolan’s career.

Nolan has been here before. His 2023 film ‘Oppenheimer’ earned $975 million globally and went on to win Best Picture, part of a 7-Oscar haul. Last season, Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another’ crossed the 75-cent threshold early on Kalshi before sealing its Best Picture win in March.

There’s still a long road ahead, with preliminary Oscar voting scheduled for December 7 to 11, nominations announced on January 21, 2027, and the ceremony set for March 14, 2027. For now, ‘The Odyssey’ remains the film to beat, but the rise of ‘The Black Ball’ proves this race is far from over.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!