Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Is Digging Itself Into a Box Office Nightmare as Projections Plunge Again
Few stars are as closely tied to the big-screen experience as Tom Cruise, which is why the troubled road to release for his new film ‘Digger’ has become one of Hollywood’s most closely watched stories. The R-rated satire, directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, opens in theaters on October 2 and was once tipped as an awards contender that could finally land Cruise a long-awaited acting Oscar.
It’s also a real departure for the actor, marking his first non-franchise movie in 9 years after 3 ‘Mission: Impossible’ films and ‘Top Gun: Maverick’. The film casts Cruise as Digger Rockwell, a billionaire oil tycoon racing to prove he’s humanity’s savior after triggering a global environmental catastrophe.
He’s joined by Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, Jesse Plemons, Emma D’Arcy, and Sophie Wilde. Back at CinemaCon in April, Cruise was all enthusiasm, telling theater owners, “My film family, you know I’m here for you, and I love you,” as reported by The Hollywood Reporter.
That optimism has since collided with harsh reality. On September 30, Page Six reported that ‘Digger’ could make as little as $8 million to $12 million in what it called a terrible opening weekend. That’s a far cry from the forecasts that circulated only days earlier.
The decline has been remarkably steady. Early tracking from Box Office Theory had the film between $20 million and $29 million, before NRG tracking dropped to around $19 million. More recently, Variety reported the film tracking at $12 million to $15 million in North America, down from $18 million to $20 million.
First trailer for Alejandro G. Iñárritu's ‘DIGGER’, starring Tom Cruise.
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) July 13, 2026
The film follows the most powerful CEO in the world who must save the world from a disaster that he created.
In theaters on October 2. pic.twitter.com/kJFhfgcStB
Industry analysts aren’t sugarcoating things either. Box Office Pro analyst Daniel Loria suggested the film could open in a modest fifth place, performing more like a small specialty release than a Cruise tentpole. Even at the earlier $19 million projection, it would have been the weakest opening among Cruise’s 9 films with Warner Bros.
The numbers look even rougher when you consider the price tag. The film was greenlit at $125 million, but 4 knowledgeable sources said the budget climbed to between $160 million and $180 million after production ran over schedule. A studio insider previously told Page Six the film was pushing $200 million.
The financial math is brutal. Rival executives told Variety a movie of this size would need a debut near $40 million, and with about $100 million spent on marketing, the break-even point sits near $350 million worldwide, though Warner Bros. puts it at $300 million. Some sources say the heavy prosthetics and secret co-stars whose identities have been kept under wraps have made the movie difficult to market.
New poster for Alejandro G. Iñárritu's ‘DIGGER’, starring Tom Cruise.
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) September 8, 2026
Final trailer releases tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/MZX6fykaVS
Reviews haven’t helped the cause. The film debuted with a 53% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes when its embargo lifted, with several major outlets tearing into it. That also ends a long streak, as no Cruise movie had previously scored under 80% since his run of ‘Mission: Impossible’ films, ‘American Made’, and ‘Top Gun: Maverick’.
Still, the film has its defenders. IndieWire’s Jim Hemphill praised Cruise’s performance as his best since ‘Magnolia’, and even in the poor reviews, Cruise has largely drawn praise, which may help his Oscar campaign.
The timing adds more pressure on the studio. The film arrives during a rough stretch for Warner Bros., marked by box office failures like DC’s ‘Supergirl’ and Maggie Gyllenhaal’s ‘The Bride!’, as Paramount Skydance works to finalize its pending takeover.
A strong international turnout may be the only thing that can soften the blow now. Whether audiences surprise the industry or confirm its worst fears, this weekend will be a major test of Cruise’s star power outside his action comfort zone.
Can Tom Cruise's star power turn Digger into a box office success despite the weak projections?
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