‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is Already Getting Rotten Tomatoes Predictions, Months Before Anyone’s Seen It

Marvel’s road to ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ has been unfolding in slow motion for over a year now, with cast reveals, trailer drops, and set photos steadily building anticipation for what’s being pitched as a genuine reset for the franchise. With Robert Downey Jr. returning as Doctor Doom and the Russo Brothers back in the director’s chair, expectations for the film have only grown heavier with each new announcement.

That anticipation has extended well beyond typical marketing buzz and into the world of prediction markets, where bettors have been placing wagers on the film’s eventual Rotten Tomatoes score for months, long before a single review has been written. Since that betting market opened back in April, forecasts for the film have consistently hovered in the low-to-mid 80s.

The latest reading puts that forecast at 84.8 percent, according to prediction market data circulating online, continuing a trend that has held steady since the market’s early days. If that number holds once actual reviews arrive, it would place ‘Doomsday’ as Certified Fresh, though notably below the scores earned by several of its Avengers predecessors.

Context makes that prediction especially interesting. A score in the mid-80s would land above 2015’s ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron,’ which finished at 75 percent, but below 2012’s original ‘The Avengers’ at 91 percent, 2018’s ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ at 85 percent, and 2019’s ‘Avengers: Endgame,’ which remains the franchise’s high-water mark at 94 percent.

That comparison underscores just how difficult it is for any MCU release to clear the upper 80s. Out of the 37 Marvel Studios films released to date, only 13 have crossed the 88 percent threshold, a track record that has led some betting analysts to favor wagers against ‘Doomsday’ reaching that same tier, even with the goodwill surrounding its ensemble cast and returning creative team.

Much of the optimism baked into these early predictions ties back to how Marvel has been framing ‘Doomsday’ internally. The film has been positioned as a reset of sorts for the franchise, bringing together original Avengers alongside newer additions like Pedro Pascal and Vanessa Kirby’s Fantastic Four, along with members of the X-Men and Thunderbolts, all built around the idea of earning back audience trust after a mixed stretch of recent MCU output.

That framing carries real stakes, since Marvel Studios has openly acknowledged ‘Doomsday’ likely won’t match the box office heights of ‘Infinity War’ or ‘Endgame,’ both of which crossed $2 billion worldwide. A strong critical reception may end up mattering even more to the film’s overall narrative than ticket sales alone, especially with the franchise’s Multiverse Saga reaching its concluding chapter here.

It’s worth remembering that any Rotten Tomatoes forecast released this far ahead of a film’s release, four months before its December 18 premiere, is speculative by nature, shaped by market sentiment and betting behavior rather than any actual critical reviews. These numbers can and often do shift considerably once reviewers actually see the finished film.

Whether ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ ultimately lands in the mid-80s, closer to ‘Infinity War’s’ benchmark, or somewhere else entirely, audiences won’t get real clarity until reviews embargo lifts closer to its release. For now, the betting markets are making their case, but Marvel still has the final word.

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