Why a Netflix Exec Thinks ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ Is Like ‘Ready Player One’

‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ arrives a full 13 years after ‘Grand Theft Auto V’, and the wait has been long enough to become a running joke. The “We Got _______ Before GTA VI” meme is arguably the most played-out one on the internet. Through all of it, the hype has refused to cool.

Part of that hype got a surprising new home this year. Rockstar Games and Netflix teamed up to debut ‘Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look’ for subscribers on Aug. 27. It was a rare moment of a video game getting the streaming-event treatment usually reserved for big-budget series.

The audience showed up in force. The special ranked No. 1 on Netflix’s English-language film list in 87 of the 93 countries the streamer tracks, and the same report put its four-day total at 31.1 million views. That kind of reach is the backdrop for what Variety reported this week.

With the game’s Nov. 19 release now days away, Variety says Newzoo projects ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ will bring in $3.25 billion to $5.2 billion in first-week sales. Netflix’s Brandon Riegg, who helped bring the game’s preview to the platform, offered a memorable comparison to the outlet. “It’s ‘Ready Player One,’ maybe without the headset,” he said.

Riegg went on to describe what he sees as the game’s real draw. “There is a narrative to the game and objectives, but you can also just live in that world,” he said, adding that players can have relationships, text people and “do crimes.” In his view, it’s an immersive alternate universe that players can participate in however they choose.

The numbers behind the headline are enormous. Newzoo puts the low end at around 37 million copies sold, rising to as many as 51 million units. The firm’s estimate assumes an $88 average selling price across the standard and ultimate editions, and it says pre-orders have already generated about $260 million globally.

For perspective, the upper end of the forecast would be nearly 4 times the roughly $1.15 billion ‘Grand Theft Auto V’ earned in its first week. Some analysts urge caution, though. One breakdown notes the high-end projection implies an attach rate of close to 40 percent in a single week, far above the roughly 10 percent ‘Grand Theft Auto V’ managed in 2013.

It’s also worth remembering what these figures are. They remain predictions rather than confirmed sales. The conservative scenario assumes demand is heavily front-loaded in the first days, so the real total will depend on how players respond once they get their hands on the game.

Riegg’s “Ready Player One” line also hints at why Netflix wanted in on the action. Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick has said the Netflix special was designed to reach beyond the established fan base, including non-gaming viewers and people not planning to buy on day one. Riegg said the partnership reflects Netflix’s ambition to bring major entertainment events to subscribers.

The big question now is whether that open-ended, do-whatever-you-want pitch converts curious viewers into buyers. ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ launches Nov. 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S at $79.99. If Newzoo’s forecast holds, the answer will show up on the sales charts almost immediately.