Is Another #Oscarssowhite Year Coming? Zendaya, Pedro Pascal and Colman Domingo Could Change the Story

Awards season usually gets loud just as the Oscar race takes shape. This year, one of Variety’s top awards voices is warning that the current Oscar predictions look worryingly familiar.

The Academy has had good news to celebrate recently. Michael B. Jordan won best actor for ‘Sinners’ in March, one of 4 wins for a film that earned a record 16 nominations. He became the sixth Black man to win the award in 98 years.

Variety’s senior awards editor Clayton Davis now sees trouble ahead. He wrote that “we’re dangerously close to another #OscarsSoWhite year,” writing for Variety. He also argued that contenders like Zendaya, Pedro Pascal, Colman Domingo, Jaafar Jackson, Jeon Do-yeon and Tao Okamoto could still help prevent it.

The numbers behind the warning are stark. In Gold Derby’s aggregated predictions in late October, 3 actors of color held nomination positions across the 4 acting categories, and no director of color made the projected 5. In the lead races, 9 of the 10 projected slots went to white performers, with Mexican Australian breakout Inde Navarrette the lone exception.

The comparison carries real history. If those projections hold through nominations morning on Jan. 21, the industry would be reliving January 2015, when all 20 acting nominees were white, and April Reign coined #OscarsSoWhite. It happened again the following year, and both times the Academy promised it had learned something and would make changes.

The final trailer for ‘DUNE: PART 3’ has been released. In theaters on December 18. https://t.co/2n2wWqvDPt

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) October 27, 2026

Davis doesn’t put all the blame on voters, though. He argues that the Academy has never been the whole problem, and that the data points upstream to Hollywood itself. He cites the USC Annenberg Inclusion Initiative, which found that 30 films had no Black characters, 46 had no Hispanic or Latino characters, and 26 had no Asian characters. Only 4 Latino directors worked across the entire sample, and all 4 were men.

There are still strong performances in contention. Zendaya is in the best actress race for ‘Dune: Part Three’, where Warner Bros. moved her from supporting to lead, and she has never been nominated for an Oscar. Pedro Pascal has emerged as a strong Best Actor prospect for ‘Behemoth!’, a Searchlight release opening Dec. 4.

A groundbreaking symphonic journey. BEHEMOTH! A film by Tony Gilroy. Starring Pedro Pascal, Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, and Will Arnett. In theaters December 4. #Behemoth https://t.co/hsfEHJ6Iu8

— Searchlight Pictures (@searchlightpics) October 28, 2026

Colman Domingo is also in the mix. His Joe Jackson in ‘Michael’ sits squarely on the bubble in supporting actor. Domingo has already made history as the first Afro-Latino nominated for best actor, for ‘Rustin’, and followed it with a nomination for ‘Sing Sing’. His co-star Jaafar Jackson is competing in the lead drama field after the Golden Globes rejected the film’s comedy/musical submission.

The international field adds more possibilities. Jeon Do-yeon stars in ‘Possible Love’, South Korea’s submission, while Tao Okamoto stars in Neon’s ‘All of a Sudden’, Japan’s submission, which opens Nov. 25. Okamoto enters the race after winning Best Actress at Cannes.

His story begins. The official trailer for MICHAEL – in theaters and IMAX April 24. https://t.co/DfGJNcuXU2

— Michael (@michaelmovie) February 2, 2026

The Academy’s voting body has changed a lot since 2015. It now has more than 11,000 members, a quarter of whom live outside the U.S., making it the most global voting body in the organization’s history. Davis argues that diversity alone isn’t enough, though. A more diverse membership can’t nominate films it hasn’t seen, and too many of these titles are arriving late, running lean campaigns, or slipping out of the screener pile.

He ends with a call to action. Distributors should invest in performances they believe in, critics groups should look past the obvious picks, and “voters need to press play.” With 2 months left until nominations, there’s still time for the race to shift.

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