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‘Dune: Part Three’ Tracking Points to a Franchise-Record Opening That Could Top ‘The Odyssey’

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Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’ is getting closer to theaters, and box office watchers are paying close attention to every sign of demand. The final chapter of the trilogy opens on December 18, the same day as Marvel’s ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, a showdown fans have nicknamed “Dunesday”. Both studios have held their ground on the date.

The franchise has grown with each film. The original ‘Dune’ opened to $41 million domestically, and ‘Dune: Part Two’ raised that to $82.5 million on its way to more than $714 million worldwide. That leaves plenty of room for the trilogy’s final entry to set a new high.

Now one tracker has shared a confident forecast. In a post on the Box Office Theory forums that’s been circulating on Reddit, user TheFlatLannister said that after a few weeks of standard ticket sales, they expect ‘Dune: Part Three’ to open to $100 million or more domestically. They also believe the film has a real chance to beat the opening weekend of Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’, even while going up against Marvel’s latest Avengers film.

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The tracker also expects the film to earn at least $25 million from previews, even if walk-up sales are weak. That would be a huge start for a franchise that has never crossed $100 million in an opening weekend.

Beating ‘The Odyssey’ would be no small feat. Nolan’s film opened to $124.5 million domestically in July and $264.1 million worldwide, the biggest global debut of his career. Its Thursday previews alone brought in $17.6 million.

‘The Odyssey’ also showed how valuable premium screens can be. About 24% of its domestic opening came from IMAX, while premium large formats as a whole accounted for 53% of the domestic gross.

The numbers so far support the optimism. ‘Dune: Part Three’ reportedly crossed $25 million in domestic presales with 48 days to go, outpacing ‘The Odyssey’ at the same stage. At the MTC3 checkpoint, its presales were said to be running 110% ahead of where Nolan’s film was at the same point.

The film started strong too. It earned around $10 million on its first day of wider presales, a franchise best. Demand has been strong enough that AMC’s website crashed during one major wave of sales.

‘Dune: Part Three’ has one major structural edge. It secured an exclusive 3-week IMAX window, meaning ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ can’t play in that format during the film’s opening stretch. Since the sequel was partially shot with IMAX cameras, those screens are expected to be in especially high demand.

‘Doomsday’, meanwhile, is relying on Disney’s new Infinity Vision certification and formats like Dolby Cinema. The split could help both films reach very different audiences on the same weekend.

It’s worth keeping expectations in check. This forecast comes from 1 tracker, not the studio, and several reports point out that presales don’t always translate directly into opening weekend results. Sharing a crowded weekend with a Marvel tentpole also adds uncertainty.

Prediction markets are optimistic too. On Polymarket, the leading outcome for the film’s opening weekend recently was $130 million or more, with a 41% chance. Box Office Pro has even raised the possibility of the industry’s first $400 million domestic opening weekend across the 2 films, though it called that far from guaranteed. If the momentum holds, Paul Atreides’ final chapter could end the trilogy with its biggest opening yet.

Do you think ‘Dune: Part Three’ can beat ‘The Odyssey’s’ $124.5 million opening weekend despite competing with ‘Avengers: Doomsday’?

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