Panem Is Back: ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ Presales Leave ‘Wicked’ and ‘Michael’ in the Dust
The odds look very good for Haymitch Abernathy. Early box office tracking for ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ has been climbing fast, and the prequel now looks like the movie to beat this Thanksgiving. A strong domestic start for a sixth film in the series would be a big improvement over ‘The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’, which opened to $44.6M in the U.S. before reaching $166.3M domestic and $394M worldwide.
The source material gave the film a strong start. Suzanne Collins’ novel sold over 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, the biggest debut for any title in the ‘Hunger Games’ book series. In the U.S. alone, it sold 1.2 million copies, more than twice the opening sales of ‘The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes’ and over three times that of ‘Mockingjay’.
Ticket buyers are responding the same way. In an exclusive box office update, Deadline reports that the film’s presales are ahead of Universal’s ‘Wicked’, with the opening floor now at $80M+, up from last weekend’s forecast of $60M-$70M. The presales are the best Lionsgate has seen for any title since COVID, and they’re also ahead of ‘Michael’, which opened to $97.2M in North America.
Some trackers think it can go much higher. After presales opened on October 28, trackers Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office estimated the movie could open to over $100 million, with Empire City calling that number a virtual lock. Prediction platform Polymarket puts the chance of a debut north of $100M at 75%.
Deadline is more cautious. Because female-driven movies can often be front-loaded, it set the floor at $80M+, though it noted there was a similar concern 2 years ago that ‘Wicked’ would be front-loaded, and those presales turned into a $112.5M opening.
New ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ broadcast just aired on CNN during U.S. Election Night coverage. 🎥: KevOutKevin https://t.co/CX57wLgOlt
— Pop Crave (@PopCrave) November 4, 2026
The release calendar also helps. With nothing as big as ‘Wicked’, ‘Moana 2’ or ‘Zootopia 2’ coming at the Thanksgiving box office, ‘Sunrise on the Reaping’ is in a strong position. Its second weekend will compete with the Ariana Grande comedy ‘Focker-In-Law’ and Disney’s ‘Hexed’, and Deadline says the prequel could beat both newcomers over the Wednesday-Sunday holiday stretch.
The film needs a big result. Its budget is reported at between $170 million and $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million. Opening in the $80 million to $100 million range would put Lionsgate in a good position to make that back.
The cast has plenty of appeal. Joseph Zada stars as District 12 tribute Haymitch Abernathy, while Whitney Peak plays his girlfriend Lenore Dove Baird. The ensemble also includes Jesse Plemons, Elle Fanning, Kieran Culkin, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Ralph Fiennes and Glenn Close.
The Exclusive Final Trailer for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is Here https://t.co/Ugtog10EzZ
— Beyond Reporter (@Beyondreporter1) October 29, 2026
Longtime fans have another reason to go. Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are also set to make a cameo as Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark. The story is set 24 years before the first ‘The Hunger Games’ film and follows Haymitch’s own early rebellion.
The franchise is staying with what works. Francis Lawrence, who has directed every installment since 2012’s ‘Catching Fire’, returns to direct from a screenplay by Billy Ray. ‘Sunrise on the Reaping’ hits theaters on November 20, 2026, exactly 11 years after ‘The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2’ was released.
New trailer for ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping.’ https://t.co/kjrAmRwx58
— Pop Crave (@PopCrave) September 16, 2026
With 2 weeks to go, the numbers could still change, but the momentum is clear. If presales keep up their current pace, Haymitch’s story could become the franchise’s biggest opening in over a decade.
Do you think The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping will open above $100 million at the domestic box office?
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