‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Is Shaping Up To Be Tom Holland’s Second-Biggest Opening Ever
Summer 2026 has not been kind to the box office, but Sony and Marvel Studios appear to have found the one movie capable of turning things around. Tom Holland is set to return as Peter Parker in ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ arriving in theaters on July 31 with a story that finds him fighting crime in a world that no longer remembers who he is.
The anticipation has been building for months, fueled by presale numbers that industry watchers have compared directly to the last time a Spider-Man movie broke records. Deadline previously confirmed that the film posted the strongest first day United States presales of any movie in five years, a benchmark last set by ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home.’ That earlier film went on to become a cultural phenomenon, and fans have been watching closely to see whether ‘Brand New Day’ could come anywhere close to matching it.
Now the industry has its answer, or at least its clearest projection yet. Sony and Marvel Studios’ ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ is heading into its July 31 release with three-week tracking projections indicating a domestic opening weekend of $180 million to $190 million. Film news account Film Updates shared the update on X, crediting the figures to Deadline’s reporting and pairing the news with a shot of Zendaya and Holland in costume from the film.
If that number holds, it would represent the biggest opening of 2026, clearing Toy Story 5’s $159.6 million debut, and the second-biggest opening in Spider-Man franchise history behind only 2021’s ‘No Way Home’ at $260.1 million. That would put ‘Brand New Day’ ahead of ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ ($211.4 million), ‘Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ ($187.4 million opening), ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ ($117.6 million) and ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ ($92.6 million). The under-25 male demographic is reportedly driving huge demand for the film, outpacing every one of those releases including ‘No Way Home’ itself.
What makes the projection even more notable is that it comes without one of the industry’s most valuable premium formats in play. ‘Brand New Day’ will miss out on an IMAX release entirely, since Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ has locked down an exclusive four week IMAX run. Fandango has separately reported that ‘Brand New Day’ became the platform’s biggest first day preseller of the entire year, surpassing even ‘The Odyssey’ itself.
The strong tracking arrives as other 2026 superhero releases have struggled, reigniting debate over whether so called superhero fatigue is really about the genre or simply about which characters and franchises still resonate with audiences. Much of the buzz has centered on the returns of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield’s Peter Parker variants alongside a roster of familiar villains, plus mounting curiosity around Sadie Sink’s still mysterious character.
With three weeks left before release and tracking numbers this early known to shift, all eyes are on whether ‘Brand New Day’ can close the gap with ‘No Way Home’ or even push past it. Do you think Holland’s fourth solo outing has what it takes to swing all the way to $200 million, or will Sadie Sink’s villain reveal be the real deciding factor on opening night?
