Steve Rogers Just Overtook the ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Death Pool, and Loki’s Recent Scare Might Be Why
Marvel fans have never needed much encouragement to speculate wildly about which characters might not survive the studio’s next big crossover event, but this particular round of guessing has taken on an unusually competitive edge. Rather than just trading theories across social media, fans are now putting real money behind their predictions through an online prediction market.
That market, hosted on Polymarket and titled “Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday?”, has become a genuine barometer for fan sentiment ahead of the film’s release, with traders constantly adjusting the odds as new footage, leaks, and unrelated Marvel content shift perceptions of each character’s fate. The rankings have shifted meaningfully over the past several weeks.
Steve Rogers has reportedly overtaken Loki as the character traders consider most likely to die in “Avengers: Doomsday,” according to Polymarket data tracked over the past month. That shift comes after a recent scare involving Loki in the “Marvel Rivals” video game, where the character was briefly marked as missing and later revealed to have been killed off by Gorr the God Butcher within that game’s own storyline, sparking renewed fan anxiety about his fate in the film.
Even though “Marvel Rivals” has no direct connection to the plot of “Doomsday,” the timing of that in-game death was enough to influence how bettors were pricing Loki’s chances on the open market. Combined with the character’s long, complicated history of dying and returning throughout the MCU, that kind of event tends to move the needle even when it isn’t technically canon.
The Polymarket prediction market has reportedly attracted nearly $20,000 in trading volume, with traders weighing in on which major characters are least likely to survive the film’s climactic battle. Earlier tracking had Thor sitting at the top of the death odds, followed closely by Loki and Steve Rogers, with Sam Wilson’s Captain America and Doctor Strange trailing behind in the mid-range.
Steve Rogers has been overtaken as favourite to die in Avengers: Doomsday. Loki’s death in Marvel Rivals has seen him take top spot ahead of the film’s release, according to polymarket.com traders. https://t.co/xGfkCJey1Y
— ScreenTime (@screentime) September 18, 2026
Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom, unsurprisingly, holds one of the lowest death probabilities on the board, reflecting widespread expectations that the character survives to carry the story forward into “Avengers: Secret Wars.” As with any fan-driven prediction market, these figures represent pure speculation rather than confirmed plot details, and Marvel Studios has offered no official comment on any character’s fate.
The first trailer for ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ has been released.
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) July 20, 2026
In theaters on December 18. pic.twitter.com/AlSIXL32CD
Much of the renewed interest in Steve Rogers’ odds appears tied to unresolved questions surrounding how Chris Evans’ character is even back in the story to begin with. Trailer footage reportedly shows Thor questioning Steve’s return, and some fan theories suggest this version of Rogers may be an alternate variant rather than the character audiences said goodbye to in “Avengers: Endgame.”
That ambiguity, paired with reports that Steve appears in footage with a child, has fueled theories that his story could be building toward another emotionally significant exit. Whether that translates into an actual death or simply another narrative twist remains entirely speculative at this stage.
Separately, unverified reports circulating online since late February have claimed Doctor Doom kills Loki along with several other characters during an attack on the Time Variance Authority, though Marvel has never confirmed those claims either. Combined with the “Marvel Rivals” scare, that lingering rumor has clearly shaped how traders continue to price Loki’s odds relative to the rest of the cast.
New trailer for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’
— Culture Crave 🍿 (@CultureCrave) August 15, 2026
In theaters December 18 pic.twitter.com/1wsiTk1Nnv
With “Avengers: Doomsday” still months away from release, expect these prediction market odds to keep shifting as new trailers, leaks, and unrelated Marvel content continue feeding fan speculation.
Who do you think is most at risk of dying in Avengers: Doomsday?
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