Jack Lowden Just Became the Betting Favorite for James Bond, and the Timing Isn’t a Coincidence

The hunt for Daniel Craig’s replacement has been dragging on for years, with names cycling in and out of favor almost as fast as prediction markets can update their odds. What started as pure fan speculation has slowly evolved into something closer to a genuine horse race, complete with real money on the line.

That race just produced a fresh frontrunner, and the shift says a lot about how quickly momentum can build once the right person starts talking.

Jack Lowden is currently the favorite to be announced as the next James Bond, according to Polymarket.com traders, with the actor’s odds sitting at 23%, narrowly ahead of the possibility that no Bond gets chosen at all this year at 20%. The ‘Slow Horses’ star has surged past longtime frontrunner Callum Turner, whose odds have dropped to 15.5% amid the shifting market.

Lowden’s rise traces back to comments from broadcaster and author Richard Osman, who discussed the actor on his podcast ‘The Rest Is Entertainment.’ Osman claimed he’d heard Lowden’s name connected to the role, later clarifying his comments weren’t a definitive confirmation while still describing Lowden as being “strongly considered” for the part.

The shift has been dramatic given how entrenched Turner’s position once looked. Turner’s odds reportedly reached as high as 67% back in December, buoyed in part by a high-profile endorsement from George Clooney, before Lowden’s odds climbed as high as 40% across various betting markets following Osman’s remarks.

Lowden, who first found wider recognition in the 2016 BBC miniseries ‘War & Peace’ and has since appeared in ‘Dunkirk’ and ‘Mary Queen of Scots,’ reached his biggest audience yet starring opposite Gary Oldman in ‘Slow Horses.’ Notably, if cast, he would become the first Scottish actor to play Bond since Sean Connery originated the role decades ago.

The betting frenzy comes as the actual casting process enters a genuinely critical stage behind the scenes. Amazon MGM Studios has confirmed the search for Craig’s successor is officially underway, with Denis Villeneuve directing, Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing, and ‘Peaky Blinders’ creator Steven Knight writing the script. Screen tests reportedly began this month, and Pascal has previously called the end of 2026 a “good bet” for when an official casting announcement might finally arrive.

Further down the field, Jacob Elordi continues to hold a steady third-place position across most betting platforms, while names like Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, and Josh O’Connor remain in the mix without generating quite the same level of sudden momentum Lowden has picked up. Given how volatile this market has proven to be over the past year, with frontrunners rotating based on little more than a single well-placed comment or industry rumor, there’s no guarantee Lowden’s current lead holds until an official announcement drops.

Still, with actual screen tests now underway and a real timeline finally in place, this latest shift feels more consequential than the speculation that dominated the conversation for years beforehand. Do you think Jack Lowden will end up landing the role of James Bond? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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