‘Thunderbolts*’ Shakes Up the Box Office with Mixed Marvel Results

Marvel’s latest superhero flick, ‘Thunderbolts*’, hit theaters on May 2, 2025, aiming to spark the summer box office. With a gritty team of antiheroes led by Florence Pugh as Yelena Belova and Sebastian Stan as Bucky Barnes, the film promised a darker, more grounded vibe than typical Marvel fare. I was curious to see how it stacked up financially, especially after some recent Marvel stumbles. Let’s dive into the numbers and see where ‘Thunderbolts*’ lands among its MCU siblings.

The film pulled in $73 million to $77 million domestically during its opening weekend, with Friday alone raking in $31.5 million, including $11.5 million from Thursday previews. Globally, it’s on track for $160 million to $175 million in its debut. These figures come from reports by Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, painting a picture of a solid but not spectacular start. For a movie kicking off the summer season, a slot Marvel often dominates, these numbers feel a bit modest compared to the MCU’s glory days.

Making ‘Thunderbolts*’ wasn’t cheap. The production budget clocked in at $180 million, with another $100 million spent on marketing and distribution, according to Variety. To break even, the film needs to hit roughly $600 million to $700 million worldwide, factoring in theaters keeping about half the box office haul.

To be a true success, it might need to push toward $800 million, a tall order given recent MCU trends. Strong word-of-mouth could help, as the movie got some amazing critic scores, tying it with some of Marvel’s best-received films like ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’.

How does this compare to other Marvel movies? Let’s look at the MCU’s recent track record. ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ crushed it in 2024 with a $211.4 million domestic opening and $1.3 billion worldwide, making it a rare post-‘Avengers: Endgame’ juggernaut. In contrast, ‘Captain America: Brave New World’, released earlier in 2025, opened to $88.8 million domestically and ended with $414 million globally. That was considered a letdown, barely scraping into profit territory. Then there’s ‘The Marvels’ from 2023, a painful flop with a $46.1 million domestic opening and just $199.7 million worldwide against a $270 million budget. ‘Thunderbolts*’ is performing better than ‘The Marvels’ but lags behind ‘Brave New World’ and nowhere near ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’.

Looking further back, ‘Thunderbolts*’ aligns more with MCU films from the post-COVID Phase 4 era that struggled to recapture the ‘Endgame’ magic. ‘Eternals’ in 2021 opened to $71.2 million domestically and finished with $401.7 million worldwide, underwhelming for its $200 million budget. ‘Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings’ did slightly better, opening at $75.3 million and closing with $432.2 million globally, but still fell short of expectations. ‘Black Widow’, another 2021 release, pulled $80.4 million in its domestic debut and $379.8 million worldwide, hurt by its simultaneous Disney+ release. ‘Thunderbolts*’ sits in this same ballpark, suggesting Marvel’s still grappling with inconsistent box office pulls.

What makes ‘Thunderbolts*’ different is its cast and tone. Directed by Jake Schreier, known for indie projects like ‘Robot & Frank’, the film leans into a raw, emotional story about misfits like Red Guardian (David Harbour), Ghost (Hannah John-Kamen), and newcomer Sentry (Lewis Pullman). Julia Louis-Dreyfus plays the scheming Valentina Allegra de Fontaine, tying the team to broader MCU threads leading to ‘Avengers: Doomsday’. The 88% Rotten Tomatoes critic score, based on 257 reviews, signals a creative win, even if the box office isn’t breaking records.

Marvel’s had its share of hits and misses since ‘Avengers: Endgame’ in 2019, which grossed a monstrous $2.79 billion worldwide. Films like ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ ($1.92 billion) and ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’ ($845.6 million) kept the MCU’s flag flying high. But flops like ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ ($476.1 million worldwide against a $200 million budget) and ‘The Marvels’ show the franchise isn’t bulletproof. ‘Thunderbolts*’ needs to avoid the sharp second-weekend drops that plagued ‘Brave New World’ and ‘The Marvels’ to have a shot at profitability.

The film’s global rollout, including markets like China and South Korea, could boost its numbers. Unlike ‘Eternals’ or ‘Shang-Chi’, which didn’t release in China, ‘Thunderbolts*’ is hitting those screens, potentially adding $90 million to $100 million from overseas markets in its opening. If it holds steady like ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’, which dropped only 6% in its second weekend, it could climb past $400 million globally. But competition from upcoming releases like ‘Mission: Impossible – The Final Chapter’ might steal its premium screens and casual viewers.

I think ‘Thunderbolts*’ has a fighting chance to be a moderate win for Marvel. Its lower budget compared to ‘The Marvels’ gives it a better shot at breaking even, and the positive buzz could drive repeat viewings. Still, it’s clear the MCU isn’t the automatic box office king it once was. We’ll have to wait a few weeks to see if Yelena, Bucky, and their ragtag crew can defy the odds and deliver a profit—or if they’ll join the growing list of MCU near-misses.