Hollywood Declares War on Insider Bets: Studios Ban Employees From Gambling on Movie News
Prediction markets have become a new and unpredictable part of the entertainment business. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet on everything from talk show moments to major casting announcements, turning industry news into something people can wager on.
That growth has raised concerns about insider information. With so many employees knowing details before the public does, studios are now trying to get ahead of the problem.
According to an exclusive report from The Hollywood Reporter, Hollywood studios and production companies are quietly banning employees from prediction market betting on movie news. The new guidelines cover events such as castings, release dates, and studio earnings.
Employees are also forbidden from passing that information along to friends or family so they can place bets. At least one company has set up an anonymous hotline that lets staff report colleagues suspected of betting.
THR reports that the new policies build on existing insider trading rules. PMC, the parent company of THR, Variety, Deadline and Dick Clark Productions, updated its own employee handbook in recent weeks.
PMC’s guidelines bar betting on award nominations, casting decisions, production timelines and release dates. Columbia Law professor Joshua Mitts told THR that there has been “an explosion in the number of employers who have to think about insider trading rules.”
Several recent cases have highlighted the risks. In February, Kalshi disclosed that a video editor at MrBeast’s company had allegedly made $5,000 by using confidential information about MrBeast content, and the employee was fired and fined $20,000.
In April, a Puck column reported that a worker on a CBS competition show had profited through prediction markets. Commenters to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also complained that aggressive betting appeared to reveal the winner of the most recent season of ‘Survivor’ early.
The James Bond casting race also drew attention. BetOnline temporarily removed its market on the next 007 after what a representative described as “sharp money” moved heavily toward Callum Turner, raising concerns about a possible leak.
There are also markets on what guests will say on ‘The Tonight Show’, ‘Saturday Night Live’ and other talk shows. THR notes that because some of those shows are pre-taped or rehearsed, audience members could place bets without breaking any rules.
Tracking down insider bets can be extremely difficult. Mitts told THR that tracing bets placed through blockchain-based platforms can be basically impossible. He also questioned the value of these markets, arguing that there is very little social utility in pricing entertainment outcomes correctly. A March study by Mitts and Moran Ofir estimated $143 million in anomalous profits on Polymarket over 2 years.
The CFTC, which regulates US prediction markets, opened a public comment process over the summer on which event contracts should be allowed. It said betting on the Oscars and Emmys should be permitted, since awards depend on evaluative judgment rather than measurable performance.
The agency was less certain about game shows, reality competitions, pageants and music contests. THR also notes that the Onion Futures Act of 1958 explicitly bars bets on motion picture box office receipts.
As prediction markets keep growing, studios face a new kind of security risk. Insider information that was once valuable mainly to journalists and rival studios can now turn into real money. For now, studios are responding with updated rules, hotlines and clearer warnings to staff. Whether those measures can keep pace with the betting platforms remains to be seen.
Do you think Hollywood studios are right to ban employees from betting on movie news?
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