‘Supergirl’s $170 Million Budget Makes Its ‘Thunderbolts*’ Comparison Either Very Promising or Very Dangerous for DC
‘Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow’ is one of the most consequential superhero films in years, even if casual moviegoers haven’t fully caught on yet. Directed by Craig Gillespie and based on Tom King and Bilquis Evely’s graphic novel, the film stars Milly Alcock as Kara Zor-El alongside Jason Momoa as Lobo, and follows Kara on a cosmic revenge mission after crossing paths with a young alien girl hunting the man who killed her father. As the second theatrical release in DC Studios’ rebooted universe, the stakes attached to it are enormous.
The success or failure of ‘Supergirl‘ at the box office will impact the future of the DCU, with potential implications for upcoming projects like Lanterns and Man of Tomorrow. Analysts at World of Reel noted that Warner Bros. has so far failed to build the same sense of event-film urgency around ‘Supergirl’ that it generated for ‘Superman’ last July, and the film opens into a crowded corridor of summer competition, arriving one week after ‘Toy Story 5,’ five days before ‘Minions and Monsters’ and two weeks before Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ remake.
That context makes the latest analytical comparison all the more interesting. Current box office analysts are now saying ‘Supergirl’ is tracking very much like Marvel’s ‘Thunderbolts*,’ a parallel that carries more optimism than it might seem at first glance. Presale data indicates the film is reportedly performing around 2.5 times better than ‘The Marvels’ during the same stage of sales, and is also tracking close to ‘Black Widow’ and slightly ahead of ‘Thunderbolts*.’
‘Thunderbolts*’ is the useful benchmark here, and the numbers tell a nuanced story. The Marvel ensemble opened to a solid domestic debut and is considered the best-reviewed film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe since ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,’ holding a Certified Fresh 88% from critics. The film appeared to have settled at a Certified Fresh 88% Rotten Tomatoes score and an even better 93% audience score, earning an A- CinemaScore along the way. It ultimately finished its theatrical run with a worldwide gross of approximately $382 million, a figure that placed it among the MCU’s modest performers but still represented a meaningful recovery for a franchise that had been struggling to connect with audiences.
The awareness picture for ‘Supergirl’ has some bright spots as well. Unaided awareness, the tracking category where pollsters cite awareness of a movie without being prompted, is pretty evenly split among men and women both under and over 25, and overall unaided awareness is higher than ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu,’ ‘Thunderbolts*,’ and ‘Shazam!,’ with tracking not yet fully accounting for presales. The gap between awareness and intent to buy tickets, however, remains the central tension analysts are watching closely.
A global total near $500 million would likely be needed for the film to break even, given its reported production budget and marketing costs, making an opening at the low end of projections a difficult starting position. But if ‘Supergirl’ genuinely mirrors the ‘Thunderbolts*’ trajectory, that means an audience that shows up and responds warmly, which produced some of the strongest approval scores Marvel had seen in years. Strong word-of-mouth, not the opening weekend number alone, would be what keeps Kara Zor-El’s solo adventure alive through a packed summer schedule.
Whether ‘Superman’s success was a fluke or whether the DCU has the legs to go the distance may ultimately be determined by how audiences respond to ‘Supergirl’ when it lands. If Milly Alcock wins over skeptics the way the ‘Thunderbolts*’ ensemble did, the conversation around this film could shift dramatically once real audience scores start rolling in. Do you think ‘Supergirl’ can pull off the same critical and audience turnaround that made ‘Thunderbolts*’ a success story despite its modest numbers, or is the comparison already setting expectations too high?
